TheMillerCircle.org

The phrase “global climate change” is generally preferred over “global warming” because the models show that the effects of greenhouse gases will generate warmer temperatures in some regions, but cooler temperatures in others. Some regions of the globe, like Europe during the winter, are warmed by currents whose circulation pattern requires the presence of the Arctic ice cap.  In this case, warm water from the Indian Ocean flows up the Atlantic, warming Europe during the winter, while the colder return water from the Arctic shelf, which travels below the warm current, moves into the Indian Ocean to complete the warming-cooling cycle. Once the arctic ice is melted, the magnitude of this current will be reduced and Europe will be exposed to lower temperatures during the winter. This prediction of course is  based on modeling studies, the rate of which is dependent on the rate at which the Arctic ice cap melts. That is happening much faster than models have heretofore predicted.

Those climatologists who have projected the changes that will take place in polar and Greenland ice formations have given up on their models because the observed melting of the ice has occurred much more quickly than the models have predicted. The current models are too simplistic to account for the dynamic regulation of ice formation and ice break-up. A form of panic has set in for many climatologists who have specialized in modeling rates of ice melting and projecting the concomitant rise in ocean levels. Most experts seem to agree that the current expansion of the ocean volume is primarily the result of thermal expansion from the increase in temperature caused by greenhouse gases and not the result of significant melting of polar and Greenland ice. But that could all change quite dramatically in the future, a future that no one has any confidence in our ability to predict. This is probably not good news for anyone.

The Pew Center for Global Climate Change has just published a series of papers on “Climate Change 101,” each of which is available as a pdf for download. The text seems well written and the whole series is divided up into different sections that can be separately downloaded. Included in this group is a 12 page overview of the report. The Pew Center has been one of the leading organizations in pursuing the measurements and meaning of greenhouse gases; their reports are written by reputable scientists and technical experts. There is also a special Pew Report on four case studies in the United States that relate to global climate change. One of their projections for the future is that the summers will be longer and hotter in the Western United States, making forest fires more likely and more challenging to control. Contributing to this increased susceptibility for fires is the fact that longer hotter summers will give insect and fungal diseases that are harmful to trees more time to increase the percentage of dead trees in the forest, making those regions even more susceptible to fires. These kinds of changes are going on now and are expected to increase in their intensity over the coming decades.

RFM