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What stands between us and a November 4 victory: voter complacency

Posted on October 28th, 2008 in Politics by Robert Miller

Some national polling data are beginning to show that the presidential race is tightening up, with single digit Obama leads, while others show Obama’s lead is double digit (Newsweek) and expanding. The Reuters/C-Span/Zogby tracking poll began a daily tracking of voter preferences a few weeks ago. They do phone interviews every day with 400 people across the country and then present a rolling average of three days, which is about the number of people that most pollers consider reasonable, giving error margins of about plus/minus three points. Right now that poll has Obamba with 49.9 and McCain at 45.1, with an error margin of plus/minus 2.9 points. Since this daily tracking poll began just three weeks ago, Obama has gained 2.2 points, while McCain has lost 0.2 points. But, in that three week period, McCain had a yoyo event and went down before coming back up by a few points. The last debate didn’t help him, but he got back to roughly where he was before the debate.

Tight races in Minnesota:how progressives get elected

Posted on October 23rd, 2008 in General,Politics by Robert Miller

Yesterday, the Huffington Post reported that the political fortunes of Michele Bachmann (6th MN district, Republican incumbent) had dramatically changed since she blurted out her McCarthyite sentiments on “Hard Ball.” Shortly after she made her remarks on national TV, that Obama was dangerous for America, and that newspapers should investigate Congress for their anti-American sentiments, her little known Democratic challenger, El Tinklenberg, started to see his campaign donations swell meteorically from contributions that came from throughout the country. The most recent estimate is that he has received more than $ 1 million in donations in the last few days and is now well positioned to purchase heavy advertising in the closing days of the campaign. But, even more remarkable is the fact that the Republican National Congressional Committee (RNCC) has pulled its support for campaign advertising for Bachmann, only days after they had pulled money from other campaigns to support her, as the race became tighter. A few weeks ago, this race was considered a lock to return Bachmann to Congress, even though she has proven to be an embarrassment for French-kissing GWB after his State of the Union Address and for her daffy speeches on the legislative floor. In March of this year, she stated “The big thing we are working on now is the global warming hoax. It’s all voodoo, nonsense, hokum, a hoax.” We could easily bundle Michele Bachmann up and send her off to the National Bureau of Weights and Measures (now the National Institute of Standards and Technology: NIST) to serve the nation more appropirately as our national standard for “ideological bimbos.” If you knew anything about her, you could easily see her serving the nation in that capacity for many years to come. El Tinklenberg has now become a national celebrity of sorts, by not being on “Hard Ball” and by not saying anything. The DNCC is now helping Tinklenberg in his campaign, after their poll of the district showed that Bachmann’s lead over Tinklenberg had shrunk to four points and closing. Doug Grove, a columnist for the Star Tribune wrote a column on one of the Bachmann-Tinklenberg debates. She is unreal! Rosemary and I have separately contributed to Tinklenberg’s campaign. You can donate to his campaign at http://www.tinklenberg08.com/

A new kind of surge

Posted on October 22nd, 2008 in Politics by Robert Miller

This is a quote from the latest Zogby tracking poll that can be seen at the C-Span.org site.

Pollster John Zogby: “Three big days for Obama. Anything can happen, but time is running short for McCain. These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers. They fit the 1980 model with Reagan’s victory over Carter — but they are happening 12 days before Reagan blasted ahead. If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment: he leads by 27 points among Independents, 27 points among those who have already voted, 16 among newly registered voters, 31 among Hispanics, 93%-2% among African Americans, 16 among women, 27 among those 18-29, 5 among 30-49 year olds, 8 among 50-64s, 4 among those over 65, 25 among Moderates, and 12 among Catholics (which is better than Bill Clinton’s 10-point victory among Catholics in 1996). He leads with men by 2 points, and is down among whites by only 6 points, down 2 in armed forces households, 3 among investors, and is tied among NASCAR fans.”

Note the very last entry “tied among NASCAR fans.” The NASCAR people are the most died-in-the-wool Reagan Democrats: Reagan was the first U.S. President to attend a NASCAR race and much of the advertising revenue for NASCAR comes from tobacco companies who can no longer advertise on TV. Could it be that even this group of hardened Republicans is beginning to understand where their interests really lie? If not, they could get a quick review of their situation through Paul Krugman’s Op-Ed piece in the NY Times, where among other things, he tracks the plight of plumbers’ declining incomes in Ohio, where Joe the Plumber, who is not a plumber, can find out that his taxes under McCain’s plan would be greater than under the tax plan of Obama.

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