TheMillerCircle.org

It is quite likely that this story is not over, but as of now, Bush has had to cave-in to al-Maliki and accept the principal of troop withdrawal in Iraq. The Status of Forces agreement (SOFA) that he hoped to get signed with Maliki has regressed to an "understanding" between the two leaders. Ever since the terms of the SOFA he was pursuing became widely known and characterized as an excessive agreement that would give American troops autonomy within Iraq for years to come, the Iraqi parliament, but especially al-Sadr, has objected strongly to the agreement and claimed that by signing it, Maliki would give Iraq’s sovereignty away. Maliki was strongly advised by just about everyone not to sign it. Although we don’t hear about it, the Sadrists have weekly demonstrations against the SOFA terms. The popularity of US troop withdrawal is spreading.

By deciding to stand with his fellow Arabs on the SOFA issue, Maliki’s action underscores the complete lack of authority or influence that Bush has in Iraq: lame duck President and brain-lame leader. So, for Bush to conceal this slap in the face, he needed new words to describe what will be troop withdrawal and he chose "time horizon" to escape the true implications of this agreement, which, in reality, reflects the lack of an agreement. So far no definitive time-table for withdrawal has been identified, but Obama was quick to point out the true meaning of this understanding: that it underscores the fact that Iraqis don’t want American troops in their country and many are calling for a specific time-table now.

This new development puts McCain in a difficult position, as he has always been talking about fighting terrorists in Iraq as our principal reason for staying there. But, apparently, the government of Iraq, or the one we setup to do our bidding, does not feel that terrorists are that much of a problem, rather the persistence of American troops in Iraq is a more significant problem for them. McCain is going to have to find new wiggle room for this one and of course, Bush doesn’t feel he has to help him out. What this will do for the future of oil contracts between Iraq and the oil giants like Shell and BP remains to be seen. We may see the beginning of a process that favors China’s Sinopec oil over Hunt or Russia’s Lukoil over Shell. Bush continues to show that he truly has the Medusa Touch rather than the Midas one. But, as Peter Dickson has said, “As these fig leaves drop to the ground, they are exposing raw geo-strategic objectives that were present in the original calculations of Republican foreign policy experts going back to the early 1990s, a desire for a firm U.S. foothold in the Middle East to protect the West’s access to oil and to defend the state of Israel from, then, primarily its Arab enemies.” There aren’t many fig leaves left.

Bush was between a rock and a hard place on this one, as he couldn’t push the SOFA too far, lest he be accused of pursuing imperial designs on Iraq, which is what he had in mind all along. From the time he came into office, when he wanted to adhere to the Paul Wolfowitz idea that America needed a new front to replace the lack of one from the collapse of the Cold War. Well, Bush’s bold new plan for America, a new permanent war footing in the Middle East appears to have an ending to it coming up. For most of us, it can’t come too soon.