TheMillerCircle.org

For every country we occupy, we establish a so called "Security of Forces Agreement" or SOFA. This arrangement establishes the rights of the American occupation forces and those of the "host" country. These agreements always tend to give US forces immunity from local laws, certain rights for military operations and land acquisition for military bases. In the case of Iraq, the new SOFA that Bush has been trying to get al-Maliki to sign will give the US military 58 bases in Iraq for an unlimited amount of time, complete control of Iraqi air space, the ability to launch military operations at any time without the Iraqi government’s approval and immunity from Iraqi laws for the US contractors that will remain in place as long as the occupation lasts. Last count there are about as many private contractors in Iraq as military personnel.

The leaders of both ruling Shiite parties have denounced this agreement, claiming that too much Iraqi sovereignty is surrendered and apparently their objections have forced the US to modify its demands, though we get precious little information from the US side (officially the negotiations are going well and they expect them to be completed by the July 31 deadline). Al-Maliki has expressed a special concern about the contractors’ immunity, given past problems with groups like Blackwater Security gunning down civilians. Iraqis also fear that, from the bases in Iraq, the US will be free to launch military actions outside of Iraq (will Iraqi troops be asked to assist in an invasion of Iran?), with Iran as its main target, basically establishing Iraq as a permanent puppet government.

At the present time, the US forces occupy Iraq through a United Nations mandate that will run out this year. Many inside the administration feel that, given the problems they are having with the SOFA, it may be best to extend the UN mandate for the US occupation. This would be a major blow to Bush. According to at least some frustrated insiders of the Bush administration, these negotiations are going poorly and the Iraqis have rejected much of the first Bush proposal. The demand for 58 bases is an expansion of the present arrangement of about 30, so clearly Bush is clearing the way for his followers to have a more binding, expansive commitment for staying in Iraq. But US senators, including Obama have insisted that any agreement with Iraq must get approval from the US Congress and Obama has repeated his claim that the US does not seek permanent bases in Iraq. So, it’s conceivable that the Iraqi government will delay the SOFA until after the US elections, hoping that Obama wins and then negotiate a SOFA that is far less demanding of Iraq sovereignty. But many of us wish that no SOFA will be necessary, as a one year extension of the UN mandate could give us the time necessary for withdrawal. This issue is getting very little play in the US press, but it is big time news in the Arab world and Juan Cole. Most of the news in English comes either from the BBC or from our most reliable source–McClatchy.

Bush and Cheney are trying to tie up the Iraqi government so that US companies will have permanent access to their oil fields and we will have permanent bases to match our huge new embassy. But because Iraqis feel that the expansion of the military bases means the US is preparing for an invasion of Iran, they are insisting that the Iraq government must have control of US troop deployments. In addition al-Maliki recently visited Iran and both sides have agreed that Iran should be part of any security arrangement for Iraq. Al-Maliki sees both Iran and the US as part of a needed security agreement for his government. So Bush and McCain can criticize Obama for willing to sit down with the Iranian government, but it is seemingly OK for al-Maliki, their puppet head, to visit Iran and conduct what is for all intents and purposes, the beginning of a mutual security agreement. It would not amuse Bush if al-Maliki offered to negotiate a security pact between Iran, the US and Iraq. This would make the US an ally with the Shiites against the rest of the largely Sunni Arab World, including the Saudis, which of course is defacto what exists now. Whether Bush is cooking a new stew or whether he is being cooked in his own stew remains to be seen. In the meantime Iraqi security is being violated every day as the Turkish air force is bombing Kurdish targets without any comment from Bush, who seems more like a kid who needs some new toys.