TheMillerCircle.org

When you want to know whether a strategy, such as the “surge” is working in Iraq, probably no one would trust George Bush for his impression. But, is there anyone in the Bush administration that you would trust? Probably not. Yet, it has been the hype of our government to try and give a positive message for loyal Bushies to take home over the summer recess so they can tell their constituents how things have really turned around. And, according to some polls, there has been an improvement in poll numbers suggesting some political gains for the warlords. But that’s all it is, hype! We have heard the number of deaths are going down, but as Juan Cole points out, the phrase “only mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun” was part of a Noel Coward song written in 1923 and he was referring specifically to Baghdad. In other words, violence goes down in July because insurgents don’t want to carry explosives around when it is 120 degrees F in the shade. So the comparisons to make are between July months from one year to the next and that comparison goes like this for the American deaths:

July 2003: 48
July 2004: 54
July 2005: 54
July 2006: 43
July 2007: 80

Do you see any hint of a surge turnaround here?

But the situation with the Maliki government has never been worse. The Saudi’s have refused him a visit, members of his cabinet have left the government and it appears to be on serious life support. Worse yet is the death toll for the Iraqis… “Meanwhile, the statistics for the hapless Iraqis themselves are no less discouraging. According to icasualties.org, the Iraqi civilian and military death toll from political violence in July 2007 was 1,690, a 25 percent increase from the July 2006 number, 1,280. (There was also a 25 percent increase in Iraqi casualties in July 2007 over June 2007, meaning the trend was going in the wrong direction any way you look at it.) These statistics — bad enough as they are — are typically understated by a substantial margin because passive tallying by media outlets misses many deaths.”

General David Patraeus is no less a victim of this government hype as Andrew Bacevich points out in an excellent summary of this last ditch effort to gloss over what we already know and have known for some time: we are wasting American lives and American treasure by propping up a government that has increasingly little support and little credibility. The troop “surge” cannot be sustained beyond next spring without seriously compromising the integrity of the military by extending service further. Bush and Cheney have put themselves between a rock and a hard place. But they will use this little bump in the polls to push and push for the idea that the plan is working brilliantly. Their only problem will be the numbers….the real numbers, not those coming out of the government. Our government tried to tally the July American death toll by stopping short of the end of the month of July, but by month’s end, the number (80) and the real meaningful comparison between months from year to year, lays to rest any credibility for the surge no matter what way you look at it. American leaders like Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld have always assumed they could manipulate public opinion because their base is comprised of the naive and hopeful who will swallow anything, at least more than once. But the naive and hopeful can only get their false news for so long and beginning early next year, their own politicians, who will claim a turnaround in the war this August, will begin to tell them that the war needs a new course.

Beginning with the “Downing Street Memo” the reality behind this war has been increasingly evident as a war for promoting American hegemony in the Middle East and the perpetrators view losing this war as an open admission to the World that American Hegemony is over. Well, if so, thank God! Now maybe we can get this bridge fixed in Minneapolis and the many others in the state whose ratings are less than the one that went down. Poor Garrison Keillor is wondering how he will drive to Rochester MN to go to the Mayo Clinic, because the trip requires going over bridges whose safety ratings were 38.3 and 35.6 as opposed to the 50 rating for the one that went down. Some have argued we should put a sign in front of each bridge with it’s safety rating and the words “proceed at your own risk.” So, finally, we are beginning to get a better glimpse of what it’s like to live in a country that is the last “super power” of the world.